Forecast and optimize future media performance

The Media Forecaster helps you build forward-looking media plans using Prescient’s MMM models.

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Create a plan to understand how a fixed budget could be distributed across your media mix to maximize modeled revenue. Prescient evaluates the expected performance of each included channel and tactic, then compares the optimized plan with your current baseline.

Use the Media Forecaster to:

• Build plans for future dates
• Forecast media revenue and ROAS
• Optimize a fixed marketing budget
• Compare current and recommended allocations
• Evaluate multiple channels, tactics, and outcome models together
• Monitor actual performance after a plan begins
• Share planning scenarios with your team

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My Plans

The main Media Forecaster page displays your existing plans.

Each plan includes its name, owner, planning period, goal type, current status, the date it was last updated, and whether it is public or private. Use the search and filter controls to quickly find plans by owner, status, or visibility.

Plan Status

A plan can be in one of three statuses:

Ready – The forecast has been completed, and the plan is ready for review.

Processing – Prescient is generating the forecast and calculating the optimized budget allocation.

Failed – Prescient was unable to complete the forecast. Review the plan settings and try again, or contact your Prescient team for assistance.

Public and Private Plans

Plans can be created as:

• Private: Visible only to you
• Public: Available to other members of your Prescient organization

You can make a private plan public after reviewing the results.

Select New Plan to create a forecast.

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Create a New Plan

The plan setup page defines the question you want Prescient to answer.

Name and Description

Give the plan a clear name that identifies its purpose and planning period.

For example:

• Q4 Revenue Growth Plan
• Holiday Media Forecast
• September Fixed-Budget Scenario
• 2027 Annual Media Plan

Use the description to record important context, assumptions, or goals.

Select a Goal

The goal determines what Prescient should optimize.

For a Fixed Budget, Maximize Revenue plan, Prescient distributes the available budget across the selected media to generate the greatest modeled media revenue.

The optimized allocation may not produce the highest possible ROAS for every individual channel. The objective is to maximize total modeled revenue across the complete plan.

Select Your Models

Choose the business outcome models that should be included in the forecast.

Models may represent different sources of revenue, such as:

• Ecommerce stores
• Retail partners
• Marketplaces
• Social commerce platforms
• Direct-to-consumer revenue

A single media investment may influence several of these outcomes. By including multiple models, the Media Forecaster can evaluate the expected impact of media across the wider business rather than optimizing for only one storefront.

The selected models are shown at the top of the finished plan.

Choose a Planning Period

Select the future period the plan should cover.

You can use a predefined duration or enter custom dates.

The planning period determines:

• The total time covered by the forecast
• The historical baseline used for comparison
• The expected weekly or daily media performance
• When actual performance begins appearing in the plan

Longer planning periods may include more seasonal variation than shorter plans.

Set the Marketing Budget

Enter the total media budget available for the planning period.

Depending on the available options, you may begin with:

• Average recent spend
• A custom budget
• Another suggested historical reference

Prescient displays the calculation used to create the suggested budget so you can review it before running the plan.

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Select Included Media

Choose the channels and tactics that Prescient should include in the optimization.

The table displays information such as:

• Media channel
• Included tactics and campaigns
• Forecast confidence
• Optimization setting
• Recent spend
• Recent modeled revenue
• Recent modeled ROAS

Only selected media will be included in the plan.

Optimization Type

For each channel or tactic, choose how it should be treated.

Optimize

Prescient can increase or decrease the allocation based on expected performance.

Other available controls may allow you to preserve or constrain selected investments, depending on your account configuration.

Use these controls when a channel has:

• A contractual commitment
• A minimum required investment
• A strategic test
• A fixed sponsorship
• Inventory or audience limitations
• Another business requirement

Confidence

Confidence indicates how strongly the underlying models support the media forecast.

A channel can contribute to several revenue models. Prescient displays confidence across the applicable models so you can understand the strength of the forecast across the business.

Select or hover over the confidence indicator to review confidence by model.

For example, a channel may have strong confidence across Shopify, Amazon, Sephora, and retail models.

Higher confidence generally means the models have stronger historical evidence for estimating how the channel responds to spend changes.

Confidence should be considered alongside business context. It is not a guarantee that the forecasted result will occur.

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Understanding the Completed Plan

When processing is complete, the plan opens to a summary of its objective, models, media scope, and forecasted outcome.

The header displays:

• Selected models
• Number of channels
• Number of tactics
• Number of campaigns
• Optimization goal
• Plan visibility

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Plan Summary

The summary cards provide the most important information about the plan.

Planning Period

Shows the start and end dates, total number of weeks, and current progress.

After the plan begins, it also shows:

• Current week
• Weeks elapsed
• Weeks remaining

Spend

Shows the total planned marketing budget.

Once the plan is active, Actual to Date compares observed spend with the expected amount for the current point in the plan.

This helps identify whether the team is pacing above or below the forecasted allocation.

Optimized Media Revenue

Shows the total media revenue Prescient forecasts under the optimized allocation.

The card also compares the optimized result with the baseline.

For example:

• Baseline media revenue
• Optimized media revenue
• Forecasted revenue lift
• Percentage improvement

After the plan begins, Actual to Date shows observed modeled revenue compared with the expected optimized result.

Optimized Media ROAS

Shows the forecasted media ROAS for the optimized plan.

It is compared with baseline ROAS so you can understand whether the recommended allocation is expected to improve overall efficiency.

Actual-to-date ROAS becomes available as spend and modeled revenue are observed.

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Baseline, Optimized, and Actual to Date

The Media Forecaster compares different views of your media plan:

• Baseline — what this period is modeled to deliver if you keep spending the way you do today.
• Optimized — what this period is modeled to deliver if you reallocate the same budget based on Prescient's recommendations.
• Actual to Date — what your reporting has actually recorded so far.
• Expected to Date — what the plan expected to deliver by this point in the period, based on the plan's actual pacing and shape.

Baseline

The baseline answers the question:

“What would happen if I changed nothing about my current media allocation?”

The baseline uses the same planning period and total budget as the optimized plan. The difference is how that budget is allocated: the baseline maintains the current campaign spending pattern, while the optimized plan reallocates the budget based on Prescient's recommendations.

How Baseline Is Calculated

The baseline calculation has two separate parts:

1. Baseline Spend — determines how much each campaign is expected to spend during the planning period based on current spending levels.
2. Baseline Performance — uses the same MMM methodology as the optimized plan to forecast revenue and new customers from that spend.

1. Baseline Spend

Prescient calculates the average spend for each campaign during the reference period. The spending cadence is based on the aggregation used by the selected model (for example, daily or weekly).

For a model using daily aggregation, Prescient calculates the reference-period daily average and projects it across the selected planning period:

Baseline Campaign Spend = Reference-Period Daily Average Campaign Spend × Number of Days in the Planning Period

Example

Suppose the selected model uses daily aggregation.

During the reference period, the average daily campaign spend is $313,670.

For a 92-day planning period:

$313,670 × 92 days = $28,857,640

This projected spend represents the baseline: what would be spent during the planning period if the current spending level continued.

If the model uses a different aggregation, such as weekly, the same calculation is applied using that period:

Baseline Campaign Spend = Reference-Period Average Campaign Spend × Number of Reference Periods in the Planning Period

2. Baseline ROAS

Baseline ROAS measures modeled revenue efficiency against media spend.

The revenue is the modeled Base + Halo revenue generated by the baseline allocation.

Baseline ROAS = Modeled Base + Halo Revenue ÷ Baseline Media Spend

Example

If the baseline allocation results in:

• Baseline Media Spend: $28.86M
• Modeled Base + Halo Revenue: $65.4M

Then:

Baseline ROAS = $65.4M ÷ $28.86M = 2.27x

This means that for every $1 of media spend, the baseline is modeled to generate $2.27 of Base + Halo revenue.

3. Baseline CAC

Baseline CAC measures modeled new customer efficiency against media spend.

The new customers are the modeled Base + Halo new customers generated by the baseline allocation.

Baseline CAC = Baseline Media Spend ÷ Modeled Base + Halo New Customers

Example

If the baseline allocation results in:

• Baseline Media Spend: $28.86M
• Modeled Base + Halo New Customers: 480,000

Then:

Baseline CAC = $28.86M ÷ 480,000 = $60.13

This means the baseline is modeled to spend approximately $60.13 in media for each new customer.

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Optimized

The optimized plan shows what Prescient expects to happen if you reallocate the same total budget based on the optimization recommendations.

The optimized plan uses the same:

• Total budget
• Planning period
• Models
• Media
• Goal
• Constraints

The key difference is how the budget is distributed across campaigns.

For example:

The total budget remains the same, but the optimized plan changes where the budget is spent.

Prescient then models the expected revenue and new customer outcomes from the optimized allocation using the same MMM methodology.

Optimized ROAS

Optimized ROAS measures modeled revenue efficiency against media spend using the modeled Base + Halo revenue.

Optimized ROAS = Modeled Base + Halo Revenue ÷ Optimized Media Spend

Optimized CAC

Optimized CAC measures modeled new customer efficiency against media spend using the modeled Base + Halo new customers.

Optimized CAC = Optimized Media Spend ÷ Modeled Base + Halo New Customers

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Actual to Date

Actual to Date shows what your reporting has actually recorded so far during the planning period.

As new data becomes available, actual spend and modeled performance are added to the plan.

You can use Actual to Date to compare:

• Planned spend vs. actual spend
• Forecasted revenue vs. modeled actual revenue
• Forecasted ROAS vs. actual modeled ROAS
• Expected pacing vs. actual implementation pacing

Expected to Date

Expected to Date represents the plan's own per-period expected values added up through today.

It follows the plan's actual shape rather than assuming that the total plan is distributed evenly across the planning period.

For example, if a plan is designed to spend more toward the end of the planning period, Expected to Date will reflect that ramp. This provides a more meaningful comparison against Actual to Date than simply dividing the full-period plan evenly across each day.

Interpreting Actual to Date

Actual-to-date results may initially appear significantly below the full-period baseline or optimized forecast because only part of the planning period has elapsed.

When comparing Actual to Date with the plan, use Expected to Date and the progress indicator to account for how much of the planning period has passed.

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How the Views Work Together

The Baseline and Optimized plans use the same total budget and planning period, so the comparison focuses on the expected impact of changing the media allocation, rather than simply spending more or less.

Baseline → Current allocation

Optimized → Recommended allocation

Expected to Date → Planned performance by today

Actual to Date → Observed performance so far

The key difference is how the budget is distributed across campaigns.

For example:

The total budget remains the same, but the optimized plan changes where the budget is spent.

Prescient then models the expected revenue and new customer outcomes from the optimized allocation using the same MMM methodology.

Optimized ROAS

Optimized ROAS measures modeled revenue efficiency against media spend using the modeled Base + Halo revenue.

Optimized ROAS = Modeled Base + Halo Revenue ÷ Optimized Media Spend

Optimized CAC

Optimized CAC measures modeled new customer efficiency against media spend using the modeled Base + Halo new customers.

Optimized CAC = Optimized Media Spend ÷ Modeled Base + Halo New Customers

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Actual to Date

Actual to Date shows what your reporting has actually recorded so far during the planning period.

As new data becomes available, actual spend and modeled performance are added to the plan.

You can use Actual to Date to compare:

• Planned spend vs. actual spend
• Forecasted revenue vs. modeled actual revenue
• Forecasted ROAS vs. actual modeled ROAS
• Expected pacing vs. actual implementation pacing

Expected to Date

Expected to Date represents the plan's own per-period expected values added up through today.

It follows the plan's actual shape rather than assuming that the total plan is distributed evenly across the planning period.

For example, if a plan is designed to spend more toward the end of the planning period, Expected to Date will reflect that ramp. This provides a more meaningful comparison against Actual to Date than simply dividing the full-period plan evenly across each day.

Interpreting Actual to Date

Actual-to-date results may initially appear significantly below the full-period baseline or optimized forecast because only part of the planning period has elapsed.

When comparing Actual to Date with the plan, use Expected to Date and the progress indicator to account for how much of the planning period has passed.

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How the Views Work Together

The Baseline and Optimized plans use the same total budget and planning period, so the comparison focuses on the expected impact of changing the media allocation, rather than simply spending more or less.

Baseline → Current allocation

Optimized → Recommended allocation

Expected to Date → Planned performance by today

Actual to Date → Observed performance so far

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Performance Over Time

The Performance Over Time chart shows how results are expected to change throughout the planning period.

Use the metric selector to review available outcomes, such as:

• Media Revenue
• Media ROAS
• Spend

The chart may include:

• Baseline: Expected performance under the original allocation
• Optimized: Expected performance under Prescient’s recommended allocation
• Actual: Observed performance after the plan begins

Compare View

Use Compare to review baseline, optimized, and actual performance together.

This makes it easier to see the expected lift created by the optimized allocation.

Breakdown View

Use Breakdown to explore how individual parts of the media mix contribute to the total plan.

The forecast can change over time because Prescient accounts for factors such as:

• Seasonal demand
• Historical media response
• Diminishing returns
• Different revenue models
• Changes in the selected media mix

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Media Breakdown

The Media Breakdown table explains how the budget is distributed.

Review results by:

• Channel
• Tactic

For each row, Prescient compares three groups of metrics.

Baseline

• Spend
• Media revenue
• ROAS

Optimized

• Recommended spend
• Forecasted media revenue
• Forecasted ROAS
• Percentage change from baseline

Actual to Date

• Observed spend
• Modeled revenue
• Modeled ROAS
• Pacing compared with the plan

Green and red indicators show how optimized or actual values differ from the comparison point.

For example, Prescient may recommend:

• Increasing spend in a channel expected to produce more total revenue
• Reducing spend in a channel with weaker marginal returns
• Increasing revenue while accepting a lower ROAS
• Reducing spend while improving ROAS
• Maintaining an allocation that is already near its modeled optimum

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Revenue and ROAS Trade-Offs

An optimized plan may increase revenue while lowering ROAS for a particular channel.

This does not necessarily mean the recommendation is inefficient.

As spend increases, media often experiences diminishing returns. A channel may still generate meaningful additional revenue even though each additional dollar produces a slightly lower return.

Prescient evaluates the complete plan rather than attempting to maximize every channel’s individual ROAS.

For example:

• Channel A may receive more spend and generate substantially more revenue at a slightly lower ROAS.
• Channel B may receive less spend because its next dollar is expected to produce less incremental revenue.
• Channel C may maintain a similar budget because its current allocation is already close to the modeled optimum.

Focus on the overall plan objective, not only the direction of one channel’s ROAS.

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Expand a Channel

Select a channel row to open more detail.

The expanded view may show:

• Included tactics
• Per-model confidence
• Baseline and optimized performance
• Actual pacing
• Performance over time
• Revenue contribution by outcome model

This helps explain why Prescient recommended a particular allocation.

For example, a channel may have moderate performance in one storefront but strong expected impact across several retail and ecommerce models.

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Multi-Model Forecasting

A key benefit of the Media Forecaster is the ability to optimize media across multiple business outcome models.

A channel may drive revenue through several destinations, including:

• Your ecommerce website
• Amazon
• TikTok Shop
• Retail partner websites
• Physical retail
• Other connected sales sources

Optimizing only one model could undervalue media that creates revenue elsewhere.

Prescient combines the selected models to evaluate the total expected effect of each allocation across the included business.

The confidence details show how well each model supports the channel-level recommendation.

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Monitor an Active Plan

After the planning period begins, return to the plan regularly to review implementation.

Focus on:

Spend Pacing

Is actual spend aligned with the amount expected at this point in the plan?

A forecast cannot be fairly evaluated when the recommended allocation has not been implemented.

Revenue Pacing

Is modeled media revenue tracking above or below the optimized expectation?

Review performance over a meaningful period rather than reacting to one day or week.

ROAS Pacing

Is actual modeled ROAS consistent with the expected trade-off between growth and efficiency?

Allocation

Are individual channels spending near their optimized levels?

Large differences between planned and actual allocations can explain why total results differ from the forecast.

Business Context

Consider events not reflected when the plan was created, such as:

• New promotions
• Inventory changes
• Creative launches
• Pricing updates
• Tracking interruptions
• Channel outages
• Changes in campaign strategy

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Compare and Break Down Results

Use Compare to review the difference between baseline, optimized, and actual performance.

Use Breakdown to understand the composition of the total result.

These views answer different questions:

• Compare: Did the optimized plan improve the expected outcome?
• Breakdown: Which media, tactics, or models created that result?

Use both before making additional allocation changes.

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Export Results

Select CSV to export the media breakdown for additional analysis or sharing.

The export can be useful for:

• Media buying teams
• Finance reviews
• Budget approvals
• Agency communication
• Forecast-versus-actual reporting

You can also switch between percentage and currency views where available.

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Best Practices

Use a clear objective

Name the plan based on the decision you are making and choose the appropriate goal.

Include all relevant outcome models

Include the ecommerce, marketplace, and retailer models affected by the media being planned.

Review confidence

Use larger changes where the models provide stronger evidence. Consider smaller tests when confidence is limited.

Add business constraints

Do not allow Prescient to freely adjust spend that cannot realistically be changed.

Compare against a meaningful baseline

Make sure the baseline reflects the current media strategy you want to improve.

Evaluate the complete plan

A decrease in one channel’s ROAS may support a larger increase in total revenue.

Review implementation pacing

A forecast should be evaluated against what was actually spent, not only what was planned.

Save multiple scenarios

Create separate plans to compare:

• Different total budgets
• Different planning periods
• Different included media
• Different business constraints
• Different sets of revenue models

Keep plans private while drafting

Make the plan public when it is ready for broader review.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Does Prescient automatically change my media budgets?

No. The Media Forecaster creates a recommended plan. Your team controls implementation in the relevant advertising platforms.

Why did Prescient reduce a high-ROAS channel?

The channel may have strong average historical ROAS but weaker expected returns on its next dollar of spend. Prescient optimizes marginal future performance, not only historical averages.

Why did optimized ROAS fall while revenue increased?

The plan may be investing more to generate additional total revenue. Scaling often lowers efficiency because of diminishing returns.

Why are actual results much lower than the forecast?

Check:

• How much of the planning period has elapsed
• Whether spend is pacing to plan
• Whether the optimized allocation was implemented
• Whether current data has finished syncing
• Whether major business conditions changed

Why is a channel missing?

It may not have been selected, may have had no recent spend, or may not contain enough measurable information for the plan.

Can I include several storefronts or retailers?

Yes. Select the relevant models when creating the plan so Prescient can evaluate media impact across those outcomes.

What does per-model confidence mean?

It shows how strongly each selected outcome model supports the forecast for that channel.

Can I edit a finished plan?

Depending on the plan state, you may need to create a new scenario to change its budget, dates, included media, or objective. Keeping separate scenarios also makes comparisons easier.

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